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GRAINCO F.S. Comments. 09/07/10 3:39:12 PM
October 1, 2010 is quickly approaching. Re-storage and re-dp charges will take effect on this day for any unpriced grain in storage or DP. Remember, this year we will charge an additional 10 cents per bushel on all carry-over stored corn to help defray the loss of potential drying income associated with having to carry old crop into new. This is only for corn in storage. Corn in DP will just be charged a new minimum.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
CORN BEANS
Corn futures settled down somewhat today (based on the close) but still traded in a 12 ¼ cent range in CZ10. The highs for the session were made in the overnight trade on follow through buying from Friday’s strong close. The outside market action this morning, however, did not support the higher move and some profit taking was noted late in the overnight session and in the early day session. The highs were new for the recent move and the slightly higher close prevented the futures from showing a reversal to the downside. The USDA report will be released on Friday morning and the uncertainty of what it will say added to the indecision of today’s trade. While many traders may be trading a near-160 bpa crop (or even something closer to Informa) it is doubtful that the USDA will show something close to that number as they are typically fairly conservative in their yield reductions. The early maturity of the crop, however, should allow them to have some better actual field data to work off of compared to years prior. The question that the market is awaiting the answer for is will the west and north crops be able to make up for the disappointing yields in the east? It will be too early for the USDA to answer that question on Friday. Corn inspections totaled 38.1 Mln. bu. The crop progress report is expected to show ratings for corn at steady to down 1% with harvest progress at 3-5% complete. The weather forecast overall should support active crop progress with mostly normal precip and normal temps predicted over the next few days. Rain is expected to move through the Midwest on Thursday and Friday. Friday’s COT report showed the traditional funds long 299,654 contracts and the index funds long 490,909 contracts. Both of these positions are larger than the positions held by the funds during the 2008 market rally. When and where the funds decide to liquidate is the big wildcard in this recent rally.
Soybeans close higher today despite quiet days in the corn and wheat. All signs pointed to a lower day in the beans with the outside markets (crude and the equities) suggesting that profit taking would be the main factor today. Support, however, came from the USDA’s announcement this morning of new export sales in bean oil. The U.S. sold 40,000 tons of soybean oil to China, 29,500 tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations, and 21,000 tons of soybean oil to Peru. Dec bean oil closed 93 points higher today. The USDA report will be released on Friday and is expected to show less bean production based on average guess. The average estimate is 3.406 Bln. bu. vs. the USDA number in August of 3.433 Bln. bu. Bean carryout for 10/11 is also expected to be tighter when you combine lower production with continued strong demand. Some talk today suggested that beans were higher in an attempt to lure producers to plant more bean acres next spring. Export inspections for beans totaled 13.9 Mln. bu. The crop progress report this afternoon is expected to show bean ratings steady to slightly lower. Wheat futures closed 5-6 cents lower in the nearby. The revolving door that is the Russian export ban talk continues to keep the wheat trade choppy. Wheat export inspections were 22.1 Mln. bu. Funds were sellers of 3,000 contracts of wheat.
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